Stats Indicate Hard Landing for Housing

Take a look at some recent housing numbers collected by Comstock Partners:

  • 32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000
  • 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down.
  • 15.2% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.
  • 10% of all home owners have no equity in their homes
  • $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.
  • 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan balances larger than their initial loan.
  • Homeowners  face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally, monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the mortgage.
  • According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53% over a year ago.
  • The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59% higher than a year earlier.
  • New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.
  • The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.
  • The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.
  • The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC, in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.
  • The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it never was above 220.
  • According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.
  • Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since 1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East, West and Mid-West.
  • Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

These are ugly stats and lead me to believe that housing is in for even tougher times ahead.