I have been traveling lately and haven’t had time to write any posts, but I do want to make a quick note: last week I had closed my short position in MBIA (NYSE:MBI) at $46.47 and Target (NYSE:TGT) at $58.00.
The reason for shorting MBIA is expressed here, and the underlying problems with their business have come to surface. The stock has actually fallen further and currently trades for $35.29. Fitch Ratings has stated that it will be reviewing the capital of MBIA and other bond insurers to ensure that their AAA ratings are appropriate. A downgrade would be disastrous and I would not be surprised to see one of the major insurers eventually default. However, I no longer see MBIA as a “no-brainer” short that it was in September when I shorted the stock at $61.29 so I am taking the 25% profit.
I also covered my Target short after initiating the position in July at $66.77. A 13% gain in four months is good enough for me, though I think the stock could continue to decline. The main reason for covering was that I found a more attractive shorting opportunity…
Last week, I decided to short Yahoo (Nasdaq:YHOO) at $32.26. The company is losing market share — in terms of searches and time spent on Yahoo properties — to Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) and social networking sites, in particular Facebook and MySpace. As a result, the company is having a tough time growing earnings yet trades at 70 times this year’s estimated earnings. I expect the market will eventually realize this and the stock to decline below $25 at some point.
In looking at my posts, it occurred to me that I forgot to mention that I covered my Black & Decker short at $79.14 on October 18. This resulted in a 16% gain in four months. Besides Yahoo, my remaining shorts are Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) and Retail HOLDRS ETF (AMEX:RTH).