Still Nervous of Gold

This year I have been a net seller of gold stocks for fear that gold has entered a mini bear market within a secular bull market. The US is clearly slowing down and the trade deficit, which was the main culprit for the surge in global liquidity, has recently started to improve. If liquidity growth slows down then all assets which had benefited from it previously will begin to suffer.

The only gold stocks I have remaining in my portfolio are those which I would be happy to see decline in price so that I can buy more and reduce my average cost. I am also shorting some stocks for hedging purposes.

If a liquidity crunch does arise, you can be sure that at some point the Fed will begin cutting interest rates. This will cause inflation to accelerate, the US dollar to drop, and the gold price to enjoy its next leg up to $1000 per ounce.

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